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Friday, March 3, 2017

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Nigeria Visa on Arrival (VoA)

Nigeria Visa on arrival

Nigerian Begins Visa on Arrival (VoA) Issuance for Business Visas, Tourist Visas and Transit Visas.

This is part of 60-Days action plans to ease doing business in Nigeria and boost tourism as announced by Nigeria Acting President Professor Yemi Osinbajo.

This change adopted by FGN on Nigeria visa regulations will allow foreign visitors and companies to get  visa upon arrival at Nigerian airports.

Obtaining Nigerian visa is made easy to encourage more foreign visitors and businesses to visit Nigeria. The new visa policy will remove bureaucratic bottlenecks of obtaining Visa before entering Nigeria.
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Wednesday, November 16, 2016

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who can and should stop banks from these economic and financial crimes of bank charges ?

Criminal Banks
Criminal Banks
For several years now, especially since the birth of what has become known as new generation banks in the country Nigeria, in the late 1980s and mid 1990s, excess bank charges has become a household expression. The expression came about when some banks in the country indulged themselves in excessively charging their customers fees under various guises. It got to a point that in 2001 the Bankers Committee, a self-regulatory organ in the banking industry, comprising the managing directors of all commercial or deposit money banks (DMBs), the managing director of Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC) and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) who is the Chairman, deemed it expedient to set up the Subcommittee on Ethics and Professionalism (SEP) to, among other things receive, investigate and resolve complaints from banks’ customers against their banks. The Subcommittee became an alternative dispute resolution organ in the banking industry.

Since 2001 SEP, with its Secretariat at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) in Victoria Island, Lagos has been carrying out its mandate as given by the Bankers Committee. Unfortunately, complaints, especially of excess charges by banks did not abate; if anything, they increased many times over. It was partly as a result of the dangers inherent in bank customers being short-changed by their banks and the duty the CBN owes bank customers for protection against banks’ unethical and unprofessional practices that led the apex bank to establish a Consumer Protection Department (CPD). Thus, in March 2010, the CBN got seriously involved in the protection of consumers of banking services by receiving, investigating and resolving bank’s customers’ complaints against banks.

From published reports, while the SEP, from 2001-2015 received a total of 1749 petitions and resolved 1597, the CPD of CBN, from 2010-2014, received 6737 of which 4289 had been resolved (the number of petitions resolved in 2012 not available). The cumulative amount of refunds banks made to their consumers arising from the settled cases, in the period 2001-2015 (CPD’s 2015 figures not available) was N48.58 billion and USD18.89 million.

Although, complaints by bank’s customers cut across various issues, the CBN in its various Annual Economic Reports confirmed that most of the complaints bordered on ‘excess bank charges’. Some of the other complaints included conversion of deposits of customers and ATM transaction related issues. So, the bulk of complaints made by bank customers against banks were about excess charges.

Bank’s customers, for many years, had been complaining, to no avail, that the practice of banks deliberately and illegally imposing excess charges on them should be stopped. Their interest is not in CBN or any other organ recovering excess charges but to have the problem completely stopped. They believe that the CBN can stop banks from continuing the perpetration of the unwholesome practice if it wants to, especially given its enormous powers and being the licence issuing and supervising authority. They believe too, that no matter what efforts the CBN devotes to recovering excess bank charges, bank customers would still be at the losing end given time value of money and the fact that it is not all the excess charges that banks make that are usually recovered. The reason is that the excesses come in different forms including failure of banks to apply agreed interest rates on credit facilities, increase in rates of interest and other fees without notice to and consent of the customers, multiple but same charges for a single service, creation and charging fees that are not recognised in the Guide to Bank Charges and duplication of telephone text messages.

Experience has shown that what bank’s customers mainly complain and petition against are charges that run into thousands and millions of Naira and international currencies such as the American dollar. In most cases such excesses are discovered by financial consultants who review the accounts majorly of borrowing customers of banks. And this happens mainly when the repayment of credit facilities by customers becomes suspect and questions become rife as to the make-up and correctness of huge outstanding debit balances in debtor-customers’ accounts. At that point some customers engage consultants who eventually discover that banks had taken more than what was due to them and are engaged to make refunds. Failure to resolve the issue at the bank-consultant level is what necessitates petitions to CBN and/or the SEP or the other bodies such as Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation (NDIC), Consumer Protection Council (CPC) and Bank Customers Association of Nigeria (BCAN) that also entertains complaints from bank customers. Many a time also the cases are charged to courts of law. It is those petitions that involved huge amounts of money that were sent to CBN and SEP that the apex bank and SEP reported the excess charge refunds banks were made to cough out.

But there are multiplicities of other over charges by banks that no one is petitioning against because of the size of the amount, logistics and cost that will be involved in following them through. In the majority, these are small amounts ranging from say 50k for stamp duty to N4 telephone alert messages and ATM transaction-related charges that banks collect multiples of times without justifications. Banks do this because they know that no customer will leave other important things to be chasing insignificant amount of money in a bank. Transportation money to the bank will be more than the amount to be pursued for refund. Indeed, it will be a ‘kobo wise and Naira foolish’ pursuit. Thus, banks knowingly and deliberately, take this undue advantage of their customers.

The worst is even when some banks, at certain periods in a month, impose charges on all the customers for no known service rendered and against the provisions of the Guide to Bank Charges (a banking industry’s document that indicates what charges/fees banks can legitimately collect for services rendered) issued by CBN on behalf of the Bankers Committee. It is such general unauthorised levies that often deplete balances on savings accounts until they are thrown into debit, especially if the amount realised from the low rate of interest paid by banks on such accounts is inadequate to cover the charges. They also reduce credit and exacerbate existing debit balances in customers’ current accounts.

The CBN had periodically published in some national dailies the huge amount of money it recovered for bank customers from banks. The SEP is yet to use the national dailies to make public the excess charges it recovered for customers. Similarly, not much has been reported publicly by CPC and NDIC on recoveries they might have also made for customers.

As earlier stated, N48.58 billion and USD18.89 million had been reported by the SEP and CBN as refunds to customers from 2001-2015. The figures may look huge but they are a tip of the ice-berge given that most of the excess charges by banks are neither reported nor investigated. However, the significance of the reported recovered amount can be appreciated when viewed from the fact that they are enough for the establishment of at least, two national banks, each with a minimum share capital of N25 billion; five (5) regional banks and many microfinance banks.

While all bank customers, without any exception, suffer from proven unethical and unprofessional practices of many banks in the country, is anybody asking questions on the short to long-term implications or is anyone doing something concrete to stop banks and/or save customers?

Well, one notable outcome is that this practice of banks has created a new industry of consultants that specialise in reviewing customers’ accounts and recovering excess bank charges. Such consultants, who are in the majority ex-employees of banks, know where the corpses were buried, are in prayer that banks should not abate in their unwholesome practice as it keeps them employed and puts bread on their tables. But how many are such consultants compared to the large numbers of employees of various classes of bank customers who have lost their jobs because the businesses of their employers who are bank customers had gone belly-up?

It is public knowledge that many ‘bank borrowers’ are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to repay the money they borrowed. Incidents of non-performing and outright bad credits are on the increase in banks. Even Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) is finding it hard to cope. The genesis of the bad state of a majority of banks’ credit facilities is as a result of excess charges by banks. This problem has become endemic that agitations are cutting across all categories of bank customers and they are saying that something needs to be done, and urgently too. If no other evidence exists that brings to the fore that customers are at the brink of a snap, stakeholders must remember that customers were sometime in the recent past called upon to stay away from banks for one day to protest against excess bank charges.

That was a signal. Is anybody listening or taking necessary action(s) to prevent a situation the generality of bank customers in Nigeria someday rising and insisting that enough is enough? That day, they will rightly be saying that, it is an anomaly for the tail to be wagging the dog and that an egg does not lay the hen. When and if it gets to that point, what will become of the banking industry we are all looking forward to its support to the real sector to enhance productivity? Can anyone imagine that out? If governments can return to trade by barter who says banking cannot be conducted outside banks? Indeed, why has the parallel/underground economy in the country been intractable? And of course, emerging global experiences are pointing to the fact and direction that nobody necessarily needs banks to conduct banking transactions. Notwithstanding, who can and should stop banks from these economic and financial crimes?


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How to make bank transfer from your account

You do a bank transfer when money is sent from your bank account to another person's account. Transferring money from your bank account is usually fast, with little or no charges sometimes and safer than withdrawing and paying in cash, says moneyadviceservice.org.uk.


precautions to take when making a transfer


1. Double-check the details: Check every figure, even if your bank preloads them. It can be difficult to get your money back if you send it to the wrong account.

2. Get the person on the end of the line to repeat figures and names to you: If you are doing a transfer through your telephone banking service, ask the person taking your call to repeat every number and letter to you.

3. Beware of going overdrawn: Unless you have specified a future payment date, the money will leave your account straight away; so, make sure you have enough (available) funds to avoid expensive fees.

Payments made using fast payments will sometimes be received immediately after leaving your account, but can sometimes take up to two hours.

The fast payment option is available 24 hours a day and typically used in online banking, mobile apps, over the phone or in a bank’s branch.

How to make a bank transfer


There are a number of ways you can make a bank transfer.

Telephone and online banking offer a fast and easy way to transfer money into another account.

Some common bank transfer methods are:

Online bank transfer: Log on to your online account and select the option for making a payment. Follow the instructions on the screen to enter the correct details. Some banks also offer smartphone apps that allow you to transfer money.

Telephone transfers: Call your bank’s telephone banking service. The bank’s customer services representative will guide you through the process – in some cases, you may be guided through by an automated recording.

In-branch bank transfers. If you have the money in cash, you can pay it into the account of the person you owe it to in-branch.

Details you need to transfer money

Whichever way you choose to transfer money, you will usually need the following details of the person or organisation you are paying.

Name of the person or business you are paying.

You may need the sort code of the account you are paying.

Account number of the account you are paying.

A payment reference (often your name or customer number) to let them know the money came from you.

You also need the date you want the payment to be made.

Sometimes, you will need the name and address of the bank you are sending the money to. This helps them to check that the sort code is right.

If you need to make a payment frequently, for example, a monthly bill, you may be better off setting up a direct debit or standing order.

If you have a problem with a payment, for example, if the money doesn’t arrive, your first step is to contact your bank.


Making payments online


If you collect payments mainly through cash or cheques, while this may be working for you at the moment, adding online payments provides a number of advantages to you and your supporters, according to wildapricot.com.

Meet expectations: People are increasingly comfortable paying online. When members or supporters are ready to sign up, register for an event, or make a donation, they want to do it quickly and easily. In fact, websites that don’t support online payment can be seen as being out of step.

Speed up the process: Online payments are faster than manual payments, since you don’t have to wait for the cheque to arrive or for it to clear. The whole process – from submitting an online payment to updating your bank account – can take a matter of seconds. The end result is improved cash flow for your organisation, and almost immediate confirmation of transactions. Prospective members won’t have to wait to join your organisation, and participants will know right away whether they have successfully registered for an event.

In addition, the online payment service lets you know right away if the person making the online payment has sufficient funds to cover the transaction – rather than finding out a week later when the cheque has bounced.

Save you the trouble: Automated payments also save you the trouble of depositing the cheque and recording the payment manually. Once you set up online payments for your website, they are automatically processed. You don’t handle or store any credit card information. Any updates to member records are handled automatically.

But at a price: Of course, anything of value comes with a cost, and in this case, your payment provider will charge you a fee per transaction. Some charge other fees as well – such as setup fees or monthly fees. But if online payment helps you grow your membership or fundraising, it will be taking a slice out of your much larger pie, and everyone goes away happy. 

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Tuesday, November 8, 2016

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Recession Brings Opportunity To Land Owners

Increasingly, the good sides of the crippling economic recession are unfolding and one of the areas where it is mani­fest is in land transaction in La­gos State where land commands high value and is equated to oil well by its owners and managers.

Because of recession, the billions of naira revenue which the state had been raking from land transactions has dropped by as high as 30 percent to be­tween 250 and 300 applicants per month, down from 400 per months before the recession.

It is therefore, a huge oppor­tunity for those that have bought land in the state and are yet to perfect the titles, as this period of recession has compelled the government agency which has that responsibility to consider and do business with prospec­tive applicants.

The state’s Lands Bureau says it is experiencing a slowdown in transactions and, according to Bode Agoro, the permanent secretary in charge of the bureau, applications for governor’s con­sent which is the highest revenue generating arm of the bureau, has dropped significantly.

The bureau is therefore re­questing people wishing to ob­tain their Governor’s Consent to come up with their applications, assuring that they would make the processing faster. “The only thing we can do is to speed up our processing of governor’s consent, make it quicker and more efficient and hopefully people that kept their C of O or their transactions from obtain­ing governor’s consent, when they hear that things are moving fast, they will come up”, Agoro said.

The processes leading to obtaining Governor’s Consent in Lagos, before now, were not only costly, but also tedious and time-wasting, but the need to generate more revenue is compelling the government to ease the process by shortening the time and mak­ing it lighter.

To further encourage land buying, the state government has come up with a property protection law, called the Land Grabbers Law which is specifi­cally targeted at land grabbers. ‘’The law makes it an offense for someone to sell another man’s land and the average penalty is between two to 20 years impris­onment. If you see a grabber on your land, under this law, we can arrest the occupier because whoever is sitting on the land is the grabber. We have arrested many people and they have been prosecuted under the land grab­ber’s law, Agoro said.

Continuing, he said, “we have not done a lot of alloca­tion this year because we are dealing with our backlogs and ensuring that they are being issued with C of O. Since the inception of his administration, the governor has signed over 5,000 C of Os and this was inherited from the previous administration. We are making sure that those that have been allocated are now being issued with their title’’, he assured.

Agoro said that the process of transacting business in the lands bureau was challenging and the best way to maximize efficiency was to go complete­ly electronic. “No matter how structured an organisation is, if they are using manual labour, they cannot achieve optimal productivity. The governor has graciously approved what we call the integrated land admin­istration system. It’s a system whereby all transactions on lands bureau is submitted online and processed electronically.

“We are going to have a situation whereby we guarantee titles issued by the state gov­ernment. When we have this situation, we can now partner with insurance companies. We want to create a system whereby people can trade on land as if they are trading in shares. The contract has just been awarded but it’s going to take about 18 months for it to commence because we have to put so many things in place since we are starting from the scratch”, he said.

The permanent secretary also said that the issue of double allocation was now a thing of the past because they have a comprehensive database and one of the benefits of the elec­tronic system was that it gets rid of double allocation. “Once all the information has been stored digitally. If you click on that allocation, it tells you if it’s been allocated, the size and if the person has sold the land,’’ he added.
Written by:
Innocent A.  Omodiale(Personal trainer)
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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

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Nigeria National Economic Council Holds Meeting With the Vise President

Nigeria’s Vice President, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, is currently presiding over a meeting with state governors at the Council Chambers of the Aso Rock Presidential Villa in Abuja.

Other members of the National Economic Council are also present at the meeting.

It is not clear what the agenda of the meeting is, but it is likely to be on the state of the nation and perhaps how the governors can contribute in getting Nigeria out of recession through collaboration with the Federal Government.

The Council in its last meeting on September 22 approved President Muhammadu Buhari’s strategies to pull the economy out of recession.

At the meeting, ministers and governors also debriefed the Finance Minister, Mrs Kemi Adeosun and the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Mr Udoma Udo Udoma as well as the CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele on the strategies to take the country out of the woods.

The oil-rich nation’s economy officially slipped into recession in the second quarter of 2016, with a report of the National Bureau of Statistics showing that the economy contracted by 2.06% in that quarter.

The Naira had become weak, exchanging for over 480 Naira to a dollar in the parallel market.

Despite the recession, a report of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)  has affirmed Nigeria as the biggest economy in Africa.

Nigeria was reported to have lost its spot as Africa’s biggest economy to South Africa in August 2016, following the recalculation of the country’s Gross Domestic Product.

But the IMF’s World Economic Outlook for October 2016, puts South Africa’s GDP at 280.36 billion Dollars, from 314.73 billion Dollars in 2015.

Meanwhile, latest estimates from the IMF put Nigeria’s GDP at 415.08 billion Dollars, from 493.83 billion Dollars at the end of 2015.

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Monday, October 24, 2016

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Intervention funds to grow Nigeria Economy

Following the hike of benchmark interest rate by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) a few months ago, the rate at which banks lend to the real sector has naturally been on the rise. The MPC had at its last meeting in September held rates at 14 per cent, even as pressure on the foreign exchange market had increased causing a volatility at both the interbank and parallel ends of the market.

In spite of the hike interest rates, the central  bank and the federal government have come out with various intervention funding channels to ensure the economy does not sink with high interest rates.

According the governor of the CBN, Godwin Emefiele, the high interest rate is an effort to lure foreign portfolio investors into the country and increase the inflow of foreign exchange which will eventually reduce the pressure on the currency and ultimately consumer prices. The volatility in the foreign exchange market had translated to higher consumer prices as inflation has been on a consistent rise. From single digit last year, inflation has risen to 17.9 per cent as at September 2016.


With a higher interest rate, it had become more expensive for operators in the real sector particularly small businesses to  have access to affordable finance. With the recession in the country, the real sector needed to grow so as to spur the nation out of its present predicament brought on by low prices of oil at the global market.

With its vast resources and a large market, Nigeria has great potentials to be self sufficient, however, the opposite is the case as the country is heavily dependent on import, even for basic items. This had called for an import substitution regime by the Federal Government as a way to reduce the country’s dependence on imports from developed countries.

The implementation of this policy focuses on protection and incubation of domestic infant industries so they may emerge to compete with imported goods and make the local economy more self-sufficient.

This has become even more evident in the light of lower foreign exchange revenue of the country which mainly comes from oil. Although the price of crude oil at the global market is expected to get better following agreements among oil producing countries on output, the price is likely to remain around $50 per barrel for months.

This means lower accretion to the external reserves of Nigeria which since last year had continued to be depleted reaching a low of $24 billion. The lower level of the reserves had also affected the value of the naira as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could no longer fund some imports pushing more demand to the parallel market.

Consequently, the federal government had started a campaign to increase local production to meet local demand. President Muhamadu Buhari had last year during a meeting with the Permanent Secretary of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment and senior officials of relevant agencies promised to create a more conducive atmosphere for entrepreneurs.

Buhari was quoted as saying that “with high interest rates and entrepreneurs needing trillions of naira to buy machinery, we are virtually back at Ground Zero as far as industrial development is concerned. So, we will shun all anti-development policies, and make the climate more suitable for entrepreneurs. We will create the environment for them to thrive.

With interest rates at the commercial banks hovering around 30 per cents, special intervention funds have become essential so as to provide cheaper funding for entrepreneurs in the country especially as financing has always been chief on the numerous list of various challenges facing Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs)

In view of the persistent financing gap for real sector development, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has continued to actively promote the flow of funds to the sector and improve access to finance by micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

In recognition of the importance of SMEs in the development of the economy, the CBN is collaborating with other stakeholders to evolve initiatives that would facilitate the development of SMEs.

This collaboration is towards ensuring that SMEs in the country have access to the credit that is needed to develop the real sector. Also SMEs access to credit is mostly hindered by procedures and collateral.

In this regard, the apex bank had concluded arrangements on the Secured Transaction and National Collateral Registry, which will facilitate the use of movable assets as collateral for either business or consumer credit. This will substantially enhance access to credit through the diversification of the scope of eligible assets for collateral purposes.

Apart from this, the CBN has introduced various interventions which are aimed at creating credit and encouraging lending to this sector that is crucial to the survival of the country.

One of such is the N200 billion SME Restructuring and Refinancing Facility (RRF) which was established to re-finance and restructure banks’ existing loan portfolios to manufacturers at 7.0 per cent per annum.

There is also the N200 billion SMEs Credit Guarantee Scheme (SMECGS) which was established to encourage banks to lend to productive sectors of the economy, by providing 80.0 per cent guarantee on loans granted by banks to SMEs and manufacturers.

Asides this is the N220 billion Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises Development Fund (MSMEDF) established on August 15, 2013. Disbursement from the Fund is designed to provide wholesale facilities, refinancing and guarantee to MSMEs, and is set to commence in this year. The Fund will also provide liquidity support to microfinance banks/microfinance institutions for on-lending to MSMEs. Sixty per cent of the Fund will be devoted to women entrepreneurs.

In promoting agriculture and agriculture value chains, a sector which contributes a substantial portion of the GDP, the CBN launched the N200 billion Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS) focused on the financing of large ticket projects along the agricultural value chain.

The Scheme is administered at 9.0 per cent rate of interest to beneficiaries for a seven year period, beginning 2009. Eligible large scale farmers and state governments including the FCT have continued to access the scheme.

The apex bank has reiterated its commitment to continue an intensified monitoring of projects to enhance the funding of agricultural value chain.

Likewise, the Agricultural Credit Guarantee Scheme Fund (ACGSF) has encouraged lending to the agricultural sector by providing guarantee to banks. In 2014/2015, the Bank will continue to sustain the scheme to further boost small-farmer activities. Complementary to the scheme, the CBn said it will continue the operation of the Interest Drawback Programme (IDP) in the payment of interest rebate of 40.0 per cent to farmers that make timely repayment.

The apex bank also noted that credit facilities under the Agricultural Credit Support Scheme (ACSS) will continue to be granted at 14.00 per cent, while beneficiaries who repay their loans on schedule will continue to receive a refund of 6.00 per cent of the interest paid.

The Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL) was designed by the CBN as a de-risking mechanism to unlock financial resources from the banks for the development of the agricultural value chain.

The initiative is hinged on five pillars, namely: risk sharing, technical assistance, bank incentive mechanism, bank rating system, and insurance facility. The credit risk guarantee (CRG) and IDP (components of the risk sharing facility), and capacity building under the technical assistance facility have commenced and is expected to be sustained in 2014/2015.

The N300 billion Power and Airlines Intervention Fund (PAIF) which is expected to continue to be administered at 7.0 per cent per annum in 2014/2015. In addition, the apex bank said it has concluded work, in collaboration with relevant stakeholders, on the National Infrastructure Finance Policy to leverage private finance for infrastructure development. The policy will become operational in the programme period.

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Banks have set limits

Banks have set limits on overseas Point of Sale (PoS) and online card transactions, The Nation has learnt.

Many of the lenders, which are battling a tough dollar scarcity, have pegged monthly transactions on PoS and online transactions using cards at $100, British Pounds Sterling 90, Euro 130 and Canadian Dollars 360.

The ban on cash withdrawals with Automated Teller Machine (ATM) cards while abroad still stands. Travellers are now finding it difficult to pay their hotel bills, make reservations and other transactions using their debit cards after the policy took effect.

Industry sources said had the lenders not restricted the use of ATM cards abroad, some of them would have been facing hitches meeting the dollar demands of their overseas’ customers. Such would have exposed the lenders to huge liabilities’ shocks and operational challenges as dollar scarcity persists.

Stanbic IBTC Bank, United Bank for Africa, Access Bank, Stanbic IBTC Bank, Standard Chartered Bank Nigeria (StanChart) and GTBank last week announced the suspension of their overseas ATM card services. Also suspended by the banks were all foreign currency-denominated transactions, including those conducted on PoS machines and online.

But in a move to ease the pains of customers, some of the lenders are now allowing transactions on PoS and online deals, under a marginally set limit.

In an emailed note to customers, GTBank said it had reviewed international spending limit on ATM cards downwards but restricted such transactions to cards used on PoS and online transactions.

As a way out of the crisis, banks are now encouraging travellers to open dollar accounts, which have no spending limit. Such cards are issued by the banks on domiciliary accounts funded directly by customers, but the ongoing dollar scarcity and pains of sourcing the greenback makes funding such accounts a herculean task and at cut-throat rates.

The naira closed last week at 310 to dollar in the official market and 450 to dollar in the parallel market.

Chief Economist at Renaissance Capital (RenCap) Charles Robertson, predicted that the naira would end the year at N390 to dollar in the official market, even though it has become undervalued, according to the Forex rate implied by this economist’s 13-year average real effective exchange rate (REER) of N286/ to dollar.

RenCap is a leading frontier market research and investment firm, based in many countries, including Nigeria.

“We expect the interbank forex rate to fall further, despite the naira being undervalued, partly due to low market confidence. The widening gap between the parallel forex rate of N450 to dollar and the interbank rate of N310 to dollar implies the market thinks the interbank rate should be lower. However, we do not think the ‘market-clearing rate’ is as low as the parallel rate suggests, because that market is illiquid,” he said.

“Moreover, the improvement in the current account (CA) to a surplus of 0.3 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in June this year against a deficit of 1.6 per cent in June last year, on our estimates, suggests the fall in the parallel forex rate may be overdone. We see the authorities succumbing to mounting pressure – possibly as soon as the November 22 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) – and moving towards a transparent, liquidity-enhancing forex market. Until then, we expect the policy rate to be flat at 14 per cent,” Robertson said in an emailed report.

Naira forwards have soared to records, suggesting foreign investors see another devaluation coming. Contracts maturing in six months trade at N384 per dollar, their highest-ever level. Those due in a year have climbed to N422 from N325 since the end of June. The naira’s spot price climbed 1.7 per cent to about N310 to dollar.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) started tightening capital controls in late 2014 to defend the naira as crashing crude prices crimped export revenues. It then imposed a 16-month peg of N197 to N199 per dollar from February 2015 until June 20 when the flexible foreign exchange policy was unveiled to allow naira float freely in the market.

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